Attitudes to Brexit and Scottish independence ‘deeply entwined’

ScotCen’s What Scotland Thinks paper, which is 10 years on from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, found that those in favour of remaining in the EU are three times more likely than those who backed Brexit to vote in favour of independence.

In contrast, back in 2014, those who were favourable towards Britain’s EU membership were no more or less likely to vote for independence than those who were sceptical about the EU, ScotCen said.

Support for Scottish independence has risen significantly since the 2014 independence and 2016 EU referendums, ScotCen said, with support for independence fluctuating between 23% and 35% in the years leading up to 2014, but hovering around 50% since 2019.

ScotCen added that voters are more likely to think that Scotland would be better off inside the EU but outside the UK, than inside the UK but outside the EU.

For instance, 53% said they believed that an independent Scotland within the EU would have better access to external markets, in comparison with 18% who felt that staying in the UK would be advantageous for trade.

Similarly, 46% said that being in the EU and outside the UK would be better for Scotland’s economy, while just 25% reckoned being in the UK and outside the EU would be more advantageous.

However, the difference is smaller on other issues, such as taxes and the NHS, with 25% saying taxes would be lower if Scotland were in the EU compared to 23% if it remained in the UK.

The research is based on data from the Scottish Social Attitudes survey and ScotCen’s mixed mode probability panel, with fieldwork for Scottish Social Attitudes 2023 carried out between 12^th September and 31^st October 2023 with a final sample size of 1,574.

Fieldwork for the March 2023 NatCen Panel was carried out between 9^th March and 10^th April 2023 and the final sample size was 1,184.

Professor Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow at ScotCen, said: “Today’s analysis provides a unique record of how attitudes towards Scotland’s constitutional status have evolved over the past 25 years. And it is clear that the UK’s decision to leave the EU has had a significant impact on public attitudes towards independence.

“However, in practice, there has been little debate about Scotland’s constitutional status since the implementation of Brexit. We cannot be sure what view Scots would take about independence when they have heard more about the issues at stake.

“What though is now clear is that, if and when it does happen, the debate about being in the UK or part of the EU is now potentially crucial to how voters will come to regard Scotland’s constitutional future.”