NatCen names six voter types for UK general election

The research has classified new tribes of voters based on their answers to 12 questions spanning social class, gender, level of education, where they live in the UK and views on key political issues such as the economy, immigration and climate change. 

The largest group of voters, ‘middle Britons’, has no clear political affiliation, is hard to win over and not very likely to vote, the research has found. The remaining five voter types are fairly evenly split in terms of numbers. 

The six voter tribes are:

• Middle Britons ( 26% of the electorate) – They are mostly in the middle ground across key issues, and have no clear preference for any particular party. 
• Well-off traditionalists ( 12% of the electorate) – Highly politically engaged and likely to vote, many living in the rural south-east, with socially conservative views that align with Conservative policies.
• Apolitical centrists ( 17% of the electorate) – This is the least politically engaged group and the least likely to vote. They are generally on the right on economic issues but more centrist on social issues. Relatively young and low income. 
• Left-behind Patriots ( 15% of the electorate) – These are the voters most likely to support Reform, and mostly voted for Brexit. They oppose economic inequality but are conservative in their social outlook.
• Urban progressives ( 16% of the electorate) – This group is typically university educated in professional jobs; they lean strongly to the left on economic issues and have a liberal outlook on social issues. They are highly motivated to vote, and are likely to support Labour or the Greens.
• Soft-left liberals ( 14% of the electorate) – These voters tend to be university educated and politically engaged; they have liberal social views but tend to be more centrist on economic issues. They are likely to vote for Labour, the Greens or Lib Dems.

“The electorate is not just divided between ‘left’ and ‘right’, but also between ‘liberals’ and ‘authoritarians’, while many people sit in the middle and are not especially interested in politics,” said Professor Sir John Curtice, senior research fellow at NatCen and professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

“This poses particular challenges for the two main parties, who will have to reach out to voters well beyond their own ‘comfort zones’ to succeed.”

The data behind the study comes from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey, the latest version of which will be released in full next week. It is based on randomly selected members of households across the country, a similar approach to that used by the Pew Research Center in its US voter typology framework, in order to include people who are less vocal about their political views and those who are unlikely to vote. 

“We need a more nuanced understanding of dividing lines in British politics,” said Lovisa Moller, NatCen’s director of analysis.

“Crucially, we also need to ensure that the labels and groupings that guide our thinking don’t leave out those less politically engaged and less inclined to vote, who may not be so well captured by most polling data. 

“It is our hope that this will help those interested in politics better understand how British voters think and feel about social and political issues that matter.”